Tricontinental | The Global South Defined

Tratto da Tricontinental, Hyper-Imperialism: A Dangerous Decadent New Stage, gennaio 2024. I commenti di Antiper sono evidenziati con sfondo [arancione]. [Antiper]

Outside the 49 countries of the Global North imperialist camp, making up the vast majority of the world’s population, are 145 countries that constitute the Global South (Figure 23).

The use of the term ‘Global South’ has primarily been a loose, imprecise reference. The actions over the last four years of the now fully aligned and integrated US-led Military Bloc have, however, created a large group of countries that are the ‘Rest of the World’. The ‘Rest of the World’ are thus aligned initially by ‘negative unity’, i.e., all its members are excluded. Consequently, they have become a negation of the imperialist camp. These countries include Russia and Belarus, which are not developing countries but are heavily targeted for regime change and subjugation.

The Global South includes mainly so-called ‘less developed’ or ‘developing’ countries, geographically associated with countries in Latin America, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. It implicitly refers to countries that have been historically marginalised in the global economic system and are all grappling with the legacies of colonialism and imperialism. These countries were often called the Third World.

The Global South lacks cohesion, an agreed on collective identity, and unified organisation and action. Unlike the integrated Global North bloc, the Global South is not a unified group or bloc. These 145 countries each have distinct ideologies and political agendas, with differences in proximity and orientation towards each other and Global North countries. Various disputes exist among some of them, ranging from territorial disputes (take the case of Eritrea and Ethiopia) to intra-regional political power struggles (take the historical case of Saudi Arabia and Iran).

Much of the Global South pursues sovereignty, peace, and development, yet these countries rarely reach a global consensus on any issue. Often, this points to differences in the degree of proximity of any given country to the inner core of the Global North. As such, we arrange these countries in ‘groupings’ based on some common attributes rather than in an integrated, layered ring, or distinct blocs.

However, this does not mean that the Global South is – as some Western perspectives would have it – a fabricated concept devoid of substance. The Global South (Figure24) is former colonies or semi-colonies of the Global North imperialist camp, having suffered centuries of oppression and humiliation under imperialism. A handful of these countries share, to varying degrees of commitment or realisation, a socialist political orientation. Objectively, China’s current 2022 per capita income (U$12,850) makes it a developing country. [85]

It is also because of this common historical background that Xi Jinping in his BRICS Business Forum 2023 speech (read by Wang Wentao) stated: ‘As a developing country and a member of the Global South, China breathes the same breath with other developing countries and pursues a shared future with them’. [86]

The genealogical roots of the Global South can be traced to the Third World Project that attempted to shift the international balance of forces in favour of the interests of the newly politically independent but economically indentured countries in the mid-20^th century. This included efforts of the Bandung Conference (1955), Non-Alignment Movement (1961), Organisation of Solidarity with the People of Asia, Africa, and Latin America (1966), and the pursuit of a New International Economic Order (1974) through the formation of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (1964) by developing countries. [87]

These countries hold historical and contemporary marginalisation in the global economic and political order in common. One of the most poignant but devastating examples of this commonality is the environmental and ecological damage that the Global North has visited upon Global South countries. Resource extraction and financial speculation on land and crops has led to deforestation, habitat destruction, soil degradation, and water pollution. This has created significant loss of biodiversity and large swathes of uncultivatable agricultural land – destroying local ecosystems and species and resulting in widespread hunger.

In addition, Global North multinational corporations are responsible for air, water, and soil pollution through nefarious methods; neo-liberalism ensures that there are no regulations to prevent these practices. Prohibited in the Global North but widespread in the Global South, agrochemicals and the generation of hazardous and other waste materials have increased health risks, especially to Indigenous people, women, children, and elders. [88]

Manufacturing, mining, energy, and transportation companies continuously emit greenhouse gases, the greatest contributor to climate change, putting the Global South in imminent danger of catastrophe. Direct Foreign Investment by Global North multinational corporations have decimated the environment, destroyed agricultural lands, and increased the precarity of all working peoples. At the same time, the Global North uses the climate crisis to push more land grabbing and privatisation of biodiverse resources through the financialisation of nature. [89]

All these 145 countries are now enduring the immense pressure of imperialist over-expansion. Some of the common challenges these countries continue to face include but are not limited to historical underdevelopment, primary sector dependence, limited industrialisation, external debt, trade imbalances, technological gaps, infrastructural deficit, and disproportionate environmental crisis.

Disillusioned by the challenges mentioned above, growing sections of the new bourgeoisie in Global South countries – who emerged through rapid economic growth over the past two decades, particularly in Asia – are gradually losing confidence in the political, economic, and moral leadership of both the United States and Europe. New centres of economic power, such as China, offer alternative development and investment models (e.g., through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative) and have become more attractive to the Global South bourgeoisie.

Among the 145 countries of the Global South, six groupings of countries can be identified. While each grouping has some identifiable shared traits, importantly, the grouping number correlates to the descending order of countries considered to be a threat to the US-led Anglo-American imperialist bloc. Membership in the groupings is dynamic and can change according to the political and economic conjuncture.

GS Grouping 1: Six Independent Socialist Countries

Country	General					Colonial History
	UNyr. joined	Population (mil.)	GDP (PPP) (bn.)	Growth Rate 10 yr. annual moving avg.	GDP (PPP) per capita	Colonial Status	Main colonial Powers	Year of Independence
China	1945	1,426	30,217	6.2%	21,404	Semi Colony	UK Japan US	1949
Vietnam	1977	98	1,321	6.1%	13,284	Colony	France Japan	1945
Venezuela	1945	28	197	-11.8%	7,302	Colony	Spain	1811
Laos	1955	8	69	5.1%	9,207	Colony	France	1953
DPR Korea	1991	26				Colony	Japan	1945
Cuba	1945	11				Colony	Spain	1959
Total		1,597	31,804		20,577	6 Col+SemiCol
Percentage of World		20.0%	19.4%
Source: Global South Insights elaboration based on UN, IMF

Country	Military		US Military Target
	Military spend adj. (mil.)	Military spend adj. per capita > world avg. (times)	US Sanctions List	US Military Intervention hist.	US Bases
China	291,958	0.6	Y	Y
Vietnam				Y
Venezuela	5	< 0.1	Y	Y
Laos			Y	Y
DPR Korea			Y	Y
Cuba			Y	Y	1
Total	291,963		5	6	1
Percentage of World	10.2%
Source: Global South Insights elaboration based on SIPRI & Monthly Review, UN, CRS, World Beyond War

Country	International Affiliations			UN Votes
	Friends of UN Charter	Shangai Coop. Org.	BRICS10	Gaza Ceasefire 10/2023	Russia Whitdrawal 02/2023
China	Y	Full	Original	Y	Abstain
Vietnam				Y	Abstain
Venezuela	Y			Did not vote	Did not vote
Laos	Y			Y	Abstain
DPR Korea	Y			Y	N
Cuba	Y			Y	Abstain
Total	5	1	1	5 Y	5 N+Abstain
Source: Global South Insights

All six countries in Grouping 1 (Figure 25) are advancing socialism to varying degrees, and often take progressive international positions. Five of the six are in the Group of Friends in Defence of the UN Charter.

China is the critical member in this grouping. Its GDP, measured by purchasing power parity, ranks first globally, almost tripling India’s. China’s GDP (PPP) corresponds to 119% of the United States’. [90]

It has made the most significant advancement in human development by lifting 850 million people out of extreme poverty in the last four decades. [91]

Though it does not seek hegemony over the world system, it is viewed by the US and its allies as the prime threat to their hegemony, labelled in recent years as a ‘near-peer’ competitor in US State and Defence Departments’ strategy documents. China not only represents an economic threat but, with the resurgence of a stronger communist party under President Xi Jinping, represents a major political threat with its overt revitalisation of socialist and communist traditions. China is thrust by its national and social interests and its historical support for the Global South into the role of supporting counter-hegemonic processes and projects. China continues to publicly state a commitment to ‘narrowing the North-South gap’. [92]

While China represents the major economic and political challenge to Global North hegemony today, Cuba and Venezuela represent the frontline of historical, socialist resistance. Cuba continues to push back against the suffering caused by the over six decades of the US-led economic embargo and blockade. Cuba and heavily sanctioned Venezuela have made no attempt to hide their pursuit of a socialist agenda. DPR Korea remains the West’s ‘bogeyman’ in the east, while Laos and Viet Nam have long-standing communist parties at the helm of their governments and are undergoing rapid economic development.

Ever since the founding of the Soviet Union, the world’s left forces have faced a contradiction between the needs of the state and people of the socialist projects and the needs of the working class in specific countries or regions. Strategic thinking by the working-class leaders in all countries is required to keep ‘contradictions amongst the people’ non-antagonistic and ensure that the decisive blow is directed at the centre of imperialism. Pursuing the dictum that communists have ‘no interests separate and apart from those of the proletariat as a whole’, requires an investigation of the concrete. [93]

 For example, defeats such as the fall of the Soviet Union are catastrophic for all workers. Numerous tactical decisions must be made to take advantage of the cracks in the imperialist camp to protect socialist projects and movements, whether in power or not.

GS Grouping 2: Ten Strongly Sovereign Seeking Countries

Country	General					Colonial History
	UNyr. joined	Population (mil.)	GDP (PPP) (bil.)	Growth Rate 10 yr. annual moving avg.	GDP (PPP) per capita	Colonial Status	Main colonial Powers	Year of Independence
Russia	1945	145	4,770	0.8%	33,253	Independent
Iran	1945	89	1,617	2.0%	18,865	Semi Colony	UK	1979
Belarus	1945	10	210	0.1%	22,679	Independent
Burkina Faso	1960	23	58	4.9%	2,549	Colony	France	1960
Mali	1960	23	57	4.1%	2,514	Colony	France	1960
Guinea	1958	14	44	5.8%	3,025	Colony	France	1958
Niger	1960	26	40	5.7%	1,518	Colony	France	1960
Syria	1945	22				Colony	France	1946
Afghanistan	1946	41				Semi Colony	UK, US	2021
Eritrea	1993	4				Colony	Italy	1993
Total		395	6,795		20,938	8 Col+SemiCol
Percentage of World		5.0%	4.1%
Source: Global South Insights elaboration based on UN, IMF

Country	Military		US Military Target
	Military spend adj. (mil.)	Military spend adj. per capita > world avg. (times)	US Sanctions List	US Military Intervention hist.	US Bases
Russia	86,373	1.7	Y	Y
Iran	6,847	0.2	Y	Y
Belarus	821	0.2	Y
Burkina Faso	563	0.1			1
Mali	515	0.1	Y		2
Guinea	441	0.1	Y
Niger	243	< 0.1		Y	9
Syria			Y	Y
Afghanistan			Y	Y
Eritrea			Y	Y	28
Total	95,802		8	6	40
Percentage of World	3.3%
Source: Global South Insights elaboration based on SIPRI & Monthly Review, UN, CRS, World Beyond War

Country	International Affiliations			UN Votes
	Friends of UN Charter	Shangai Coop. Org.	BRICS10	Gaza Ceasefire 10/2023	Russia Whitdrawal 02/2023
Russia	Y	Full	Original	Y	N
Iran	Y	Full	New	Y	Abstain
Belarus	Y	Observer		Y	N
Burkina Faso				Did not vote	Did not vote
Mali	Y			Y	N
Guinea				Y	Abstain
Niger				Y	Y
Syria	Y			Y	N
Afghanistan		Observer		Y	Y
Eritrea	Y			Y	N
Total	6	4	2	9 Y	7 N+Abstain
Source: Global South Insights

Countries in this grouping (Figure 26) are not socialist states but are prime targets of US-led regime change. These countries are fiercely defending their sovereignty and that of others (as seen by seven out of the nine voting against the US-backed resolution for Russian withdrawal in February 2023 and their full support of a ceasefire in Gaza).

Although these nations have different reasons for doing so, they face some of the most acute situations of the struggle for national sovereignty. They are on the frontline of the Global South’s struggle against imperialism. Whilst they are all either fully or partially economically dependent on the West, they are actively pursuing political independence. They are, therefore, subjected to extreme hybrid warfare from imperialism; put simply, most of these countries are included in US intelligence’s critical targets for regime change.

Particularly since the US-backed, right-wing coup in Ukraine in February 2014, followed by Crimea’s annexation for unification, Russia has been a primary target for regime change by the imperialist camp. The US and its allies have dedicated considerable resources towards weakening, dismantling, and denuclearising Russia; the US has provided more than US$ 90 billion in military assistance to Ukraine for the campaign against Russia from February 2014 to February 2022. [94]

Belarus is geopolitically and economically aligned with Russia (such as through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, formed in 1992, as well as the Union State of Belarus and Russia, formed in 1996) and, therefore, remains within the crosshairs of US intelligence.

Since the 1978 and 1979 revolutions that ousted US-aligned leaders, Afghanistan and Iran have been targets of US military intervention and political interference. Iran has been an obstacle to Western advances in the region, with its nuclear energy programme, strong regional influence in proxy conflicts, and consistent anti-Western (and anti-Israeli) posture. Afghanistan was invaded by the US in 2001, with the US spending two decades and over US$ 2 trillion (US$ 300 million a day) to gain a foothold in central Asia – eventually withdrawing in 2021. [95]

Since 2011, Syria has been a battleground for US attempts to secure control over the whole of West Asia, a war that proves journalist Patrick Seale’s 1965 definition of Syria – ‘the mirror of rival interests’. [96]

This group is growing, with countries such as Eritrea, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger taking bolder steps to protect their national sovereignty. Eritrea has had a long-term hostility towards the US and being a target of US intervention via Ethiopia. Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have rejected the neo-colonial presence of France in the Sahel and removed their Western-aligned political leaders. They have established both the Sahel Economic Alliance and the Alliance of Sahel States, aiming for economic and military cooperation. However, their political situation is still unstable, and they are struggling to guarantee their actual independence from imperialist powers.

GS Grouping 3: Eleven Countries Current or Historic Progressive

Country	General					Colonial History
	UNyr. joined	Population (mil.)	GDP (PPP) (bn.)	Growth Rate 10 yr. annual moving avg.	GDP (PPP) per capita	Colonial Status	Main colonial Powers	Year of Independence
Brazil	1945	215	3,837	0.5%	18,897	Colony	Portugal	1822
Colombia	1945	52	966	3.2%	18,720	Colony	Spain	1819
South Africa	1945	60	953	0.9%	15,728	Colony	UK	1931
Algeria	1962	45	584	1.8%	12,900	Colony	France	1962
Nepal	1955	31	144	4.5%	4,787	Independent
Bolivia	1945	12	119	3.2%	9,936	Colony	Spain	1825
Honduras	1945	10	70	3.1%	6,832	Colony	Spain	1821
Nicaragua	1945	7	48	2.9%	7,229	Colony	Spain	1821
Zimbabwe	1980	16	41	1.6%	2,603	Colony	UK	1980
Palestine		5	34	1.9%	6,364	Colony	Israel, UK
Namibia	1990	3	29	1.4%	11,080	Colony	Germany, S. Africa	1990
Total		456	6,826		15,397	10 Col
Percentage of World		5.7%	4.2%
Source: Global South Insights elaboration based on UN, IMF

Country	Military		US Military Target
	Military spend adj. (mil.)	Military spend adj. per capita > world avg. (times)	US Sanctions List	US Military Intervention hist.	US Bases
Brazil	20,211	0.3		Y	2
Colombia	9,938	0.5		Y	6
South Africa	2,995	0.1
Algeria	9,146	0.6		Y
Nepal	428	< 0.1
Bolivia	640	0.1		Y
Honduras	478	0.1		Y	9
Nicaragua	84	< 0.1	Y	Y	3
Zimbabwe	182	< 0.1	Y
Palestine			Y	Y
Namibia	369	0.4
Total	44,471		3	7	20
Percentage of World	1.6%
Source: Global South Insights elaboration based on SIPRI & Monthly Review, UN, CRS, World Beyond War

Country	International Affiliations			UN Votes
	Friends of UN Charter	Shangai Coop. Org.	BRICS10	Gaza Ceasefire 10/2023	Russia Whitdrawal 02/2023
Brazil			Original	Y	Y
Colombia				Y	Y
South Africa			Original	Y	Abstain
Algeria	Y			Y	Abstain
Nepal		Dialogue		Y	Y
Bolivia	Y			Y	Abstain
Honduras				Y	Y
Nicaragua	Y			Y	N
Zimbabwe	Y			Y	Abstain
Palestine	Y
Namibia				Y	Abstain
Total	5	1	2	10 Y	6 N+Abstain
Source: Global South Insights

The countries listed in Figure 27 are allocated to this grouping based on two essential concerns: the relative degree to which they are targets of regime change and their role in publicly advancing international anti-imperialist stances. Those in this grouping are either the next in line for regime change (following Grouping 2) or are playing a clear role in speaking out against the interests of the imperialist camp.

Regarding countries that pursue progressive agendas, examples include Brazil under the Workers’ Party (PT) and South Africa under the tripartite alliance (which includes the African National Congress, the South African Communist Party, and the Congress of South African Trade Unions), with the former showing leadership in building alternative intergovernmental institutions such as the South American Nations Union (UNASUR) in 2008, Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) in 2011, and the IBSA Dialogue Forum, which was supplemented by BRICS by 2009, with the latter playing an important role in building the African Union. These countries sometimes defend progressive international positions such as standing with Cuba against US sanctions in international organisations. Nepal abolished the monarchy in 2008, established a republic led by the left and has made significant strides in legally and politically emancipating historically marginalised communities.

Palestine has been under occupation and siege for over seven decades. Algeria has staunchly supported Palestinian self-determination and independence and, within the African Union, has been influential in promoting progressive stances on African unity and economic development. Following the popular coup in Niger, Algeria was the only African state to promptly advocate for non-military solutions to political crises.

These countries attempt to find a path of sovereign development within a global capitalist system yet confront severe internal contradictions. For example, South Africa was forced into significant economic concessions in the 1990s, including deindustrialisation and privatisation, leading to catastrophic results. Today, 57% of South Africans live below the poverty line, 46% are unemployed, and the share of manufacturing to the GDP has decreased from 25% in 1981 – during apartheid rule – to 12% in 2022. [97]

Unlike China, for example, these nations have seen their revolutionary potential curtailed – or their revolutions did not culminate in socialism – but have tried to pursue progressive agendas in domestic, regional, and/or international spheres. These countries are considered by the US to have political positions that are inimical to the hegemony of the Global North. Many of these countries have experienced US interventions, hybrid warfare, sanctions, and government overthrows. Recent instances of these interventions include the coups in Honduras (2009), Brazil (2016), and Bolivia (2019). Zimbabwe continues to face US sanctions.

GS Grouping 4: Five New Non-Aligned Countries

Country	General					Colonial History
	UNyr. joined	Population (mil.)	GDP (PPP) (bn.)	Growth Rate 10 yr. annual moving avg.	GDP (PPP) per capita	Colonial Status	Main colonial Powers	Year of Independence
India	1945	1,417	11,901	5.7%	8,398	Colony	UK	1947
Indonesia	1950	276	4,037	4.2%	14,687	Colony	Netherlands	1945
Turkey	1945	85	3,353	5.3%	39,314	Independent
Mexico	1945	128	3,064	1.2%	23,548	Colony	Spain	1810
Saudi Arabia	1945	36	2,150	2.5%	66,836	Independent
Total		1,942	24,505		12,634	3 Col
Percentage of World		24.3%	15.0%
Source: Global South Insights elaboration based on UN, IMF

Country	Military		US Military Target
	Military spend adj. (mil.)	Military spend adj. per capita > world avg. (times)	US Sanctions List	US Military Intervention hist.	US Bases
India	81,363	0.2
Indonesia	8,987	0.1		Y	1
Turkey	10,645	0.3	Y	Y	12
Mexico	8,536	0.2		Y
Saudi Arabia	75,013	5.7		Y	21
Total	184,543		1	4	34
Percentage of World	6.4%
Source: Global South Insights elaboration based on SIPRI & Monthly Review, UN, CRS, World Beyond War

Country	International Affiliations			UN Votes
	Friends of UN Charter	Shangai Coop. Org.	BRICS10	Gaza Ceasefire 10/2023	Russia Whitdrawal 02/2023
India		Full	Original	Abstain	Abstain
Indonesia				Y	Y
Turkey		Dialogue		Y	Y
Mexico				Y	Y
Saudi Arabia		Dialogue	New	Y	Y
Total		3	2	4 Y	1 Abstain
Source: Global South Insights

With sizable economies of scale, the non-alignment that characterises countries in this grouping is economic, not political (Figure 28). These non-socialist countries are not reviving the political project of the Non-Aligned Movement. Most of these countries have had 50 years or more of independence from former colonial rulers and today have very different relationships to them.

Economically, all five non-aligned countries have significant GDPs (all ranking in the top 20 largest economies in GDP (PPP) terms in 2022) and are taking increasingly independent economic measures.

These countries have recognised that the US hoarding of foreign exchange reserves and sanctions against countries with 30% of the world’s population poses severe threats. Today, more than one in four countries are subject to UN or Western government sanctions, while 29% of the global GDP is produced in sanctioned countries, up from 4% in 1960s. [98]

Politically, they are ambivalent. Militarily, Indonesia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia maintain very close relations with the United States. Saudi Arabia is one of the largest purchasers of advanced US weapons. Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdo?an is a less reliable partner for the West, notwithstanding Turkey being a NATO member.

This grouping shows highly contradictory behaviours on the international stage. They show some degree of slowly decreasing economic dependence on and alignment with the West and/or are prepared to oppose it on some key issues.

Despite India’s alignment with the US in organisations such as the QUAD, or its reactionary positions on Israel in its war on Gaza, since the start of the war in Ukraine, India has refused to accede to some important US demands, such as refusing to implement US sanctions against Russia. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar vocally defended his government’s refusal to accede to Washington’s pressure, saying at a press conference in June 2023, ‘A lot of Americans still have that NATO treaty construct in their heads… It seems almost like that is the only template or viewpoint with which they look at the world… That is not a template that applies to India’. [99]

 The conflict with Canada, and now with the US, over alleged Indian intelligence operations in their countries, is complicating the plan of the US to gain the support of India against China. The big national bourgeoisie of India is beginning to assert their interests.

Saudi Arabia differs from the US when its economic self-interests dictate, e.g., increasing Saudi-China investments (including oil deals paid in Chinese yuan) and using its partnership with Russia at OPEC+ to define the global price of oil. However, simultaneously, at the run-up to the Arab League summit in November 2023, Saudi Arabia blocked Algerian efforts to close US bases, blocked Iranian proposed military aid to Palestine, stopped a proposed trade boycott, and refused to curtail oil shipments to Israel. The Pentagon, CIA, and Saudi Arabia were front-line allies in the recent war against Yemen that took tens of thousands of lives. The US Special Forces provided Saudi pilots with the bombing coordinates of their targets. [100]

Indonesia, home to the largest Islamic population in the world, has had a compounded average growth rate of the GDP (PPP) of 4.2% between 2012 and 2022. [101]

According to IMF forecasts, by 2030, Indonesia could be the fifth largest economy in the world by GDP (PPP). Its state-owned enterprises’ assets as a share of GDP increased from 43% in 2014 to 54% in 2018- [102]

In 2020, Indonesia banned the exports of raw nickel, a key component of lithium batteries. Indonesia accounted for 39% of global nickel production in 2022. Its total exports in current terms surged from US$ 183 to US$ 323 billion between 2020 and 2022. [103]

On 2 February 2023, during the Mandiri Investment Forum in Jakarta, President Joko Widodo warned, ‘We must remember the sanctions imposed by the US on Russia. Visa and Mastercard could be a problem’. He also stated that, ‘If we use our own platforms, and everybody is using them, from ministries and local administrations to municipal governments, then we can be more secure’. Yet, in November 2023, the US (an active participant in the torture and assassination of 500,000+ Indonesian communists) and Indonesia signed an agreement upgrading their relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. [104]

Indonesia withdrew its application to join BRICS in 2023 and has expressed public interest in becoming an OECD member.

Confronted with a war of aggression under international law, 1846 was the de facto moment that consolidated the emerging US imperial project in Mexico. Forced to exchange land for peace and cede 50% of its territory, the new Mexico-US border became a historical line that internally constitutes an inexorable and preordained determination. On the other hand, Mexico has a history that relentlessly returns to its anti-colonial roots, Indigenous culture, and anti-imperialist modern history. Very little analysis is given to the complex interdependency of Mexico and the US, e.g., in population, culture, economics, but perhaps more significant in terms of geopolitical security for the viability of US hegemony. [105]

The government of López Obrador is, at multiple levels, an attempt of the Mexican social movements to launch a low intensity counter-neo-liberal reform. The concentration is on recovering the public property of all strategic resources, launching a new agrarian reform, and reclaiming land as social property. The current agrarian reform in Mexico guaranties by law the registration of 50.6 % of the territory as social communal property in the hands of campesinos and Indigenous communities (29,803 agrarian communes on 99.7 million hectares). However, the 2020 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA, formerly the North America Free Trade Agreement) represents a constant impediment to the uncoupling or disentanglement of Mexico’s political position vis-à-vis the emerging Global South. In June 2023, the US began preliminary proceedings (through USMCA arbitration) to block the presidential decree that would take various measures to ban genetically modified corn, which makes up 96% of US corn exports. [106]

The US is exhibiting more aggressive and interventionist policies to undermine the long and hard-fought historical gains of Mexican sovereignty. In 2022, Mexican President López Obrador refused to attend the VIII Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles after news emerged that the United States would not invite Cuban, Venezuelan, and Nicaraguan leaders to the meeting.

The five countries in this grouping have differing political, economic, or military perspectives and different nuanced levels of closeness to the Global North. However, their growing new national bourgeoisies are gradually seeking alternative economic relations and occasional political divergences with the US, albeit out of self-interest and self-preservation. The question of the new national bourgeoisie emerging in the Global South is outside the scope of this text; it will be addressed in our 2024 research on capital formation and ownership in the Global South.

GS Grouping 5: One Hundred and Eleven Diverse Global South Countries

Country	General					Colonial History
	UNyr. joined	Population (mil.)	GDP (PPP) (bn.)	Growth Rate 10 yr. annual moving avg.	GDP (PPP) per capita	Colonial Status	Main colonial Powers	Year of Independence
Egypt	1945	111	1,676	4.3%	16,174	Colony	UK	1922
Pakistan	1947	236	1,520	4.0%	6,695	Colony	UK	1947
Thailand	1946	72	1,482	1.8%	21,154	Semi Colony	UK, France
Bangladesh	1974	171	1,343	6.5%	7,971	Colony	UK	1971
Nigeria	1960	219	1,281	2.2%	5,909	Colony	UK	1960
Argentina	1945	46	1,226	0.3%	26,484	Colony	Spain, UK	1816
Malaysia	1957	34	1,137	4.1%	34,834	Colony	UK	1957
United Arab Emirates	1971	9	835	3.1%	84,657	Colony	UK	1971
Singapore	1965	6	719	3.3%	127,563	Colony	UK	1965
Kazakhstan	1992	19	603	2.9%	30,523	Independent
Chile	1945	20	579	2.2%	29,221	Colony	Spain	1818
Peru	1945	34	523	2.8%	15,310	Colony	Spain	1821
Iraq	1945	44	505	2.7%	11,948	Colony	UK	1932
Morocco	1956	37	363	2.4%	9,900	Colony	France, Spain	1956
Ethiopia	1945	123	358	8.4%	3,435	Independent
Uzbekistan	1992	35	340	5.9%	9,634	Independent
Sri Lanka	1955	22	320	1.8%	14,267	Colony	UK	1948
Kenya	1963	54	311	4.5%	6,151	Colony	UK	1963
Qatar	1971	3	309	2.2%	109,160	Colony	UK	1971
Myanmar	1948	54	261	3.3%	4,847	Colony	UK	1948
…
Total		2,242	21,171		9,687	103 Col+SemiCol
Percentage of World		28.1%	12.9%
Source: Global South Insights elaboration based on UN, IMF

Country	Military		US Military Target
	Military spend adj. (mil.)	Military spend adj. per capita > world avg. (times)	US Sanctions List	US Military Intervention hist.	US Bases
Egypt	4,646	0.1		Y	7
Pakistan	10,337	0.1			8
Thailand	5,724	0.2		Y	3
Bangladesh	4,806	0.1
Nigeria	3,109	< 0.1
Argentina	2,578	0.2		Y	3
Malaysia	3,671	0.3
United Arab Emirates					3
Singapore	11,688	5.4			2
Kazakhstan	1,133	0.2
Chile	5,566	0.8		Y	1
Peru	2,845	0.2		Y	5
Iraq	4,683	0.3	Y	Y	10
Morocco	4,995	0.4		Y
Ethiopia	1,031	< 0.1	Y	Y
Uzbekistan
Sri Lanka	1,053	0.1		Y
Kenya	1,138	0.1		Y	3
Qatar	15,412	15.9			5
Myanmar	1,857	0.1	Y
…
Total	131,182		17	63	192
Percentage of World	4.6%
Source: Global South Insights elaboration based on SIPRI & Monthly Review, UN, CRS, World Beyond War

Country	International Affiliations			UN Votes
	Friends of UN Charter	Shangai Coop. Org.	BRICS10	Gaza Ceasefire 10/2023	Russia Whitdrawal 02/2023
Egypt		Dialogue	New	Y	Y
Pakistan		Full		Y	Abstain
Thailand				Y	Y
Bangladesh				Y	Abstain
Nigeria				Y	Y
Argentina				Y	Y
Malaysia				Y	Y
United Arab Emirates		Dialogue	New	Y	Y
Singapore				Y	Y
Kazakhstan		Full		Y	Abstain
Chile				Y	Y
Peru				Y	Y
Iraq				Abstain	Y
Morocco				Y	Y
Ethiopia			New	Abstain	Abstain
Uzbekistan		Full		Y	Abstain
Sri Lanka		Dialogue		Y	Abstain
Kenya				Y	Y
Qatar		Dialogue		Y	Y
Myanmar		Dialogue		Y	Y
…
Total	3	17	3	77 Y	20 Abstain
Source: Global South Insights

There are 111 countries that are not included in the previous Global South four groupings above, due to multiple diversities. Figure 29 lists the twenty largest economies; the full list is in the appendix. They do not share the same political views nor governmental systems. Eswatini, Qatar, and Bhutan are still governed by monarchies, whilst Libya, Syria, and Somalia do not have a single governing authority. A handful of countries have abandoned socialist agendas after being hamstrung by Western development finance, such as in the case of Angola and Mozambique. Due to imperialist political and economic intervention, a series of countries in this grouping suffer severe governmental dysfunctionality (breakdown of governance, authority, and law), and are almost entirely unable to provide for their people.

The economic performance of these countries varies significantly. For example, despite Nigeria being the second largest economy in Africa and having a GDP (PPP) fourteen times that of Cambodia, the former has seen a 0.4% negative annual average growth rate between 2012 and 2022, while the latter grew by an annual 5.3%.

Among these countries, they have different levels of military allegiance to the Global North. Egypt has been a strategic partner of Israel and the United States since 1979, while Bangladesh, Comoros, and Djibouti participated in submitting a referral to the International Criminal Court regarding the situation in the State of Palestine on 17 November 2023.

They have a range of internal conflicts and territorial disputes, such as in the case of Morocco’s colonial occupation of Western Sahara, beginning in 1975. [107]

Others, for example the Democratic Republic of Congo and Haiti, are subjected to UN military interventions, where other Global South countries take part.

Countries in Grouping 5 participate in diverse multilateral platforms with both Global South and Global North nations. Membership in this grouping can change should a country develop more distinctive characteristics. For example, whilst Argentina has played historically progressive roles in the region, the recent right-wing drift currently precludes membership in that grouping today. Therefore, this is not a static or permanent position.

GS Grouping 6: Two De Facto US Military Colonies

Country	General					Colonial History
	UNyr. joined	Population (mil.)	GDP (PPP) (bn.)	Growth Rate 10 yr. annual moving avg.	GDP (PPP) per capita	Colonial Status	Main colonial Powers	Year of Independence
Rep. Korea	1991	52	2,780	2.7%	53,845	Colony	Japan	1945
Philippines	1945	116	1,171	4.9%	10,495	Colony	Spain, US	1946
Total		167	3,951		24,210	2 Col
Percentage of World		2.1%	2.4%
Source: Global South Insights elaboration based on UN, IMF

Country	Military		US Military Target
	Military spend adj. (mil.)	Military spend adj. per capita > world avg. (times)	US Sanctions List	US Military Intervention hist.	US Bases
Rep. Korea	46,365	2.5		Y	62
Philippines	3,965	0.1		Y	11
Total	50,331			2	73
Percentage of World	1.8%
Source: Global South Insights elaboration based on SIPRI & Monthly Review, UN, CRS, World Beyond War

Country	International Affiliations			UN Votes
	Friends of UN Charter	Shangai Coop. Org.	BRICS10	Gaza Ceasefire 10/2023	Russia Whitdrawal 02/2023
Rep. Korea				Abstain	Y
Philippines				Abstain	Y
Total				0 Y	0 N+Abstain
Source: Global South Insights

The peoples of these two nations (Figure 30) largely align with the Global South. Both countries have had pro-US leaders, as well as independent-leaning leaders. However, these countries are – militarily – entirely controlled by the US.

Historically, both nations have been subordinated to the US through military conquest. After WWII, when the US had militarily occupied the Korean peninsula, and, later, at the end of the Korean War, the Republic of Korea retained a large US military presence. Its economic reconstruction was almost entirely funded and directed by the US. Following the Spanish-American War, the Philippines was a US colony for nearly five decades (1898–1946).

This vassalage is evident today: after the elections of Yoon Suk-yeol in the Republic of Korea and Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in the Philippines in 2022, both have served as frontline positions in containing China. In February 2023, the Philippines invited the US to expand its military presence in the country by adding four more bases to the existing five US-operated bases – 30 years after Philippine lawmakers ruled to end permanently the US military presence in the country. The Republic of Korea has also increased the military expansion of the US, participating alongside Japan ‘to inaugurate a new era of trilateral partnership’ with the US. [108]

In addition, the General Security of Military Information Agreement between Japan and the Republic of Korea, facilitated by their closer alignment with the US, expands intelligence sharing between the two countries to include ‘threats from China and Russia’. [109]

Their military expenditures should be attributed to the US-Led Military Bloc.

Country Name (GSI)	Military SpendingUS Dollars (mil.)	Percentage of GDP (CER)	Per Capita>world avg. (times)
Saudi Arabia	75,013	6.8%	5.7
Rep. Korea	46,365	2.8%	2.5
Qatar	15,412	6.5%	15.9
Singapore	11,688	2.5%	5.4
Kuwait	8,244	4.7%	5.4
Oman	5,783	5.0%	3.5
Lebanon	4,739	21.8%	2.4
Bahrain	1,381	3.1%	2.6
Uruguay	1,376	1.9%	1.1
Brunei	436	2.6%	2.7
Source: Global South Insights elaboration based on IMF, UN, SIPRI & Monthly Review

Figure 31 lists all Global South countries with military spending exceeding the world average (except Russia, which was shown earlier). Many of these countries have close military relations with the United States but are not listed in Grouping 6.